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PARADIGM SHIFT AND PARADOXES IN THE MOVE FROM
FOSSIL FUELS TO RENEWABLE ENERGIES: FROM THE
FINITE TO THE INFINITE TO THE INFINITESIMAL
By Andrea Roggero
The work of ECR Technologies is based on
deep beliefs concerning the key topics of
innovations and changes brought about by
renewable energy sources. Among our convictions
is the idea that the development of renewable
energies represents not only an innovation but a
real paradigm shift.
When looking through the definitions of
“paradigm”, we find, among others: “The set of
scientific and metaphysical theories, values,
and beliefs making up the reference framework
within which a given phase of the evolution of
the various scientific disciplines is placed”.
Hence, starting from the three keywords
paradigm, evolution and economics (understood as
a scientific discipline), it is remarkable to
note how much these three words, linked to one
another in the very definition of paradigm, may
help us reflect on an interesting paradox
related to the topic of renewable energies.
Indeed, the evolution accompanying the move from
energy produced by means of fossil fuels to
energy produced by means of the so-called
renewable resources will inevitably lead to a
paradigm shift, above all in economics, since it
represents a radical evolution (and
transformation) of the reference framework
itself.
First of all, this is due to the fact that we
are shifting from a model linked to the use of
finite resources (fossil fuels) to one based on
energy resources that are in theory infinite
(solar power, wind power, etc.) or tend towards
the infinite.
The interesting and rather intuitive economic
paradox linking all these elements is that,
while the cost of extraction and use of fossil
fuels will grow exponentially as their
availability decreases, the unit cost of energy
produced from renewable sources will decrease in
an inversely proportional manner and eventually
reach infinitesimal values.
In order to achieve this result, it is obviously
necessary for the systems used to produce
electric power by exploiting renewable sources
to fully develop in terms of both large-scale
adoption and overall output and energy
efficiency.
Another remarkable economic paradox is obviously
liked to the so-called “environmental costs”. In
fact, while the environmental costs of energy
from fossil fuels rise as production increases,
in the case of energy from renewable sources,
costs will tend to fall in direct proportion to
their growing diffusion and use.
An additional paradox worth mentioning pertains
to the geographical dimension. Analyses carried
out at the European and global level emphasise
that countries with greater per-capita economic
resources (for instance, those in the North of
Europe) are characterised by larger investments
and greater diffusion of plants for the
production of energy from renewable sources
(solar, wind, and other sources). Paradoxically,
however, these are also the countries where the
availability of some of the above resources,
especially sunlight, is more limited compared to
the areas (the South of Europe and North Africa,
for example) where a much greater output could
be achieved by building plants of equal size.
Last but not least, still speaking about
economic implications, one significant aspect
would be sufficient in itself to justify
large-scale investments in, as well as heavy use
of, renewable energies. As mentioned above,
their unit cost is due to drop as production
grows, and this is particularly relevant when
seen in combination with the historical evidence
regarding economic tends over the last few
decades, especially the period of the so-called
“oil crisis”. Indeed, as is widely known, the
cost of energy is an economic variable that
causes the markets to drop when it goes above a
certain threshold, especially in the industrial
and manufacturing sectors. On the contrary, when
the cost of energy is low, this considerably
boosts economic development, both locally and
globally. Therefore, it would be a major
strategic oversight to relegate the growth of
renewable energies to purposes like cutting down
on domestic expenditure or to believe that this
might concern only those portions of the
population that have greater environmental
awareness, since no economic sector can
disregard the importance of low energy costs as
an essential factor to promote growth.
All the above considerations lead us to conclude
with undisputable clarity that, in order to
achieve sustainable growth in the future,
increasingly heavy investments in the
exploitation of renewable energy resources and
in their related technologies are absolutely
indispensable. At ECR, we believe that the
paradigm shift described above is not only
possible but must be seen within a real prospect
of medium- to long-term global investments. This
process will ensure that the current paradoxes
are overcome and excellent results are achieved
in both environmental and economic terms.
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